Weighting of contingency information in causal judgement: evidence of hypothesis dependence and use of a positive-test strategy

Q J Exp Psychol (Hove). 2009 Dec;62(12):2388-408. doi: 10.1080/17470210902794148. Epub 2009 Apr 17.

Abstract

Contingency is an important cue to causation. Research shows that people unequally weight the cells of a 2 x 2 contingency table as follows: cause-present/effect-present (A) > cause-present/effect-absent (B) > cause-absent/effect-present (C) > cause-absent/effect-absent (D). Although some models of causal judgement can accommodate that fact, most of them assume that the weighting of information is invariant as a function of whether one is assessing a hypothesized generative versus preventive relationship. An experiment was conducted that tested the hypothesis-independence assumption against the predictions of a novel weighted-positive-test-strategy account, which predicts hypothesis dependence in cell weighting. Supporting that account, judgements of hypothesized generative causes showed the standard A > B > C > D inequality, but judgements of hypothesized preventive causes showed the predicted B > A > D > C inequality. The findings reveal that cell weighting in causal judgement is both unequal and hypothesis dependent.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Causality*
  • Cognition*
  • Humans
  • Judgment / physiology*
  • Models, Psychological*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Neuropsychological Tests
  • Photic Stimulation
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Random Allocation
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Weights and Measures*