Including risk in stated-preference economic valuations: Experiments on choices for marine recreation

J Environ Manage. 2009 Aug;90(11):3401-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.05.010. Epub 2009 Jun 10.


Stated-preference surveys for the economic valuation of environmental resources typically assume no uncertainty in the hypothetical valuation scenarios. However, the outcomes of environmental policies are uncertain. We explored the effects of including information on probabilities of attribute improvement and provision in choice experiments. Our results suggest that stating explicitly a high probability for the occurrence of the valuation scenario can improve the goodness of fit of choice models and the consistency of choices. As the general public becomes more aware of the uncertainty of environmental outcomes under global change, omitting information on scenario risk may contribute to hypothetical bias and impair the validity of stated-preference valuations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Choice Behavior*
  • Costs and Cost Analysis / methods*
  • Data Collection
  • Decision Making*
  • Humans
  • Oceans and Seas
  • Recreation / economics*
  • Risk Assessment / methods*