The risk factors for unexplained antepartum stillbirths in Scotland, 1994 to 2003

J Perinatol. 2010 May;30(5):311-8. doi: 10.1038/jp.2009.158. Epub 2009 Oct 15.

Abstract

Objective: To determine the factors contributing to unexplained antepartum stillbirth in Scotland.

Study design: A 10-year birth database in Scotland was used to compare the unexplained antepartum stillbirth with other birth outcomes. The sample unit was a pregnant mother with a gestational age of 20 weeks and above and with a fetal birth weight of 200 g and above.

Result: Maternal age of 35 years and above, lower deprivation category, inaccessible area of residence, maternal smoking, maternal height of <160 cm and gestational age of above 39 weeks were significantly associated with unexplained antepartum stillbirth. In multivariable analysis only maternal age (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.8, confidence interval (CI): 1.1 to 3.0, P=0.02), smoking during pregnancy (adjusted OR: 2.0, CI: 1.1 to 3.5, P=0.02), and maternal height (adjusted OR: 1.4, CI: 1.1 to 1.8, P=0.01), remain significant. Screening of pregnancies based on these three risk factors had 4.2% sensitivity and 99.4% specificity. The prevalence of stillbirth for this population was 0.2%. A positive predictive value of only 1.2% implies that only 1 in 83 women with these three risk factors will have antepartum stillbirth. The remaining 82 will suffer needless anxiety and potentially diagnostic procedures.

Conclusion: Advanced maternal age, maternal smoking, and shorter maternal height were associated risk for unexplained antepartum stillbirth but screening based on these factors would be of limited value.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Body Height
  • Child
  • Female
  • Gestational Age
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mass Screening
  • Maternal Age
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Pregnancy
  • Pregnancy Complications / epidemiology*
  • Reproductive History
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Scotland / epidemiology
  • Smoking
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Stillbirth / epidemiology*
  • Young Adult