Risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease in children with posterior urethral valves

J Pediatr Urol. 2010 Jun;6(3):261-4. doi: 10.1016/j.jpurol.2009.09.001. Epub 2009 Oct 14.


Objective: To identify the variables which affect long-term renal outcome in children with posterior urethral valves (PUV).

Materials and methods: Retrospective analysis of 260 children with PUV who underwent ablation of valves in 1992-2008 at our tertiary care center. The following risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were analyzed: nadir serum creatinine greater than 1.0mg/dl, bilateral grade 3 or higher VUR at diagnosis, recurrent febrile UTIs, and severe bladder dysfunction. Patients were divided into two groups: those who developed ESRD (group 1) and those who did not (group 2).

Results: Forty (17.62%) patients had nadir serum creatinine >1mg/dl. At time of initial presentation, high-grade VUR was seen in 63.1% and 33.5% of groups 1 and 2, respectively (P=0.002). Overall, 77 (34%) of the boys developed breakthrough urinary tract infections: 37.03% and 33.5% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (P=1). Fifty-nine (26%) patients were found to have severe bladder dysfunction: 77.8% and 19% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (P<0.0001). Twenty-seven (11.89%) patients progressed to ESRD, at mean age of 11.21 years (5-16). On univariate analysis, the risk-predicting variables were: nadir serum creatinine value greater than 1mg/dl (P<0.0001), bilateral high-grade VUR (P=0.002) and severe bladder dysfunction (P<0.0001). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, nadir serum creatinine greater than 1mg/dl (OR 23.79; CI 8.20-69.05) and severe bladder dysfunction (OR 5.67; CI 1.90-16.93) were found to be independent risk factors predictive of ultimate progression to ESRD.

Conclusions: Nadir serum creatinine and bladder dysfunction are the main factors affecting long-term renal outcome in cases of PUV. Early identification and treatment of bladder dysfunction may thus be beneficial.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Catheter Ablation / methods*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Creatinine / blood
  • Disease Progression
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / diagnosis
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / etiology*
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / prevention & control
  • Male
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Ureteral Obstruction / complications*
  • Ureteral Obstruction / congenital
  • Ureteral Obstruction / surgery
  • Urethra / abnormalities*
  • Urethra / surgery
  • Urinary Diversion / methods*
  • Urodynamics


  • Creatinine