The natural history of severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis has been well documented. However, the natural history of moderate aortic stenosis remains poorly understood. Therefore, a group of 66 patients was identified who had a diagnosis of moderate aortic stenosis at the time of cardiac catheterization (aortic valve area 0.7 to 1.2 cm2) and who did not have surgical therapy during the 1st 180 days after cardiac catheterization. During a mean follow-up period of 35 months, 14 patients died of causes attributed to aortic stenosis and 21 underwent aortic valve replacement. The estimated probability for remaining free of any complication of aortic stenosis at the end of the first 4 years was 59%. Symptomatic patients with decreased ejection fraction or hemodynamic evidence of left ventricular decompensation were at greater risk for these complications. It is concluded that patients with moderate aortic stenosis are at significant risk for the development of complications.