Practical prognostic index for patients with metastatic recurrent breast cancer: retrospective analysis of 2,322 patients from the GEICAM Spanish El Alamo Register

Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2010 Jul;122(2):591-600. doi: 10.1007/s10549-009-0687-4. Epub 2010 Jan 10.


Women with recurrent metastatic breast cancer from a Spanish hospital registry (El Alamo, GEICAM) were analyzed in order to identify the most helpful prognostic factors to predict survival and to ultimately construct a practical prognostic index. The inclusion criteria covered women patients diagnosed with operable invasive breast cancer who had metastatic recurrence between 1990 and 1997 in GEICAM hospitals. Patients with stage IV breast cancer at initial diagnosis or with isolated loco-regional recurrence were excluded from this analysis. Data from 2,322 patients with recurrent breast cancer after primary treatment (surgery, radiation and systemic adjuvant treatment) were used to construct the prognostic index. The prognostic index score for each individual patient was calculated by totalling up the scores of each independent variable. The maximum score obtainable was 26.1. Nine-hundred and sixty-two patients who had complete data for all the variables were used in the computation of the prognostic index score. We were able to stratify them into three prognostic groups based on the prognostic index score: 322 patients in the good risk group (score < or =13.5), 308 patients in the intermediate risk group (score 13.51-15.60) and 332 patients in the poor risk group (score > or =15.61). The median survivals for these groups were 3.69, 2.27 and 1.02 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, risk scores are extraordinarily valuable tools, highly recommendable in the clinical practice.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Breast Neoplasms / secondary*
  • Breast Neoplasms / therapy
  • Female
  • Health Status Indicators*
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Registries
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Spain / epidemiology
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome