Projection of AIDS incidence in women in New York State

Am J Public Health. 1991 May;81 Suppl(Suppl):30-4. doi: 10.2105/ajph.81.suppl.30.

Abstract

The results of the Newborn HIV Seroprevalence Study in New York State for 1988 were used to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of childbearing age in 1988. The estimate was accomplished for each of 80 age, racial/ethnic, and geographic strata by dividing the number of seropositive newborns by the 1988 estimated fertility rate. Summing across strata yielded a total of 23,430 infected women age 15 to 44 years in 1988. From this estimate a tree model was used to estimate the number of women infected during 1981-88. Back calculation was used to distribute these infections over time, and the selected incubation distribution was used to estimate future AIDS cases for this population: 8,295 cases by 1993.

MeSH terms

  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / epidemiology*
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Bias
  • Female
  • Fertility
  • Forecasting / methods
  • HIV Seroprevalence*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Infant, Newborn
  • New York / epidemiology