Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical decision rule (CDR) to predict 1-month serious outcome and all-cause death in patients presenting with syncope to the emergency department.
Background: Syncope is a common, potentially serious condition accounting for many hospital admissions.
Methods: This was a single center, prospective, observational study of adults presenting to the emergency department with syncope. A CDR was devised from 550 patients in a derivation cohort and tested in a validation cohort of a further 550 patients.
Results: One-month serious outcome or all-cause death occurred in 40 (7.3%) patients in the derivation cohort. Independent predictors were brain natriuretic peptide concentration > or =300 pg/ml (odds ratio [OR]: 7.3), positive fecal occult blood (OR: 13.2), hemoglobin < or =90 g/l (OR: 6.7), oxygen saturation < or =94% (OR: 3.0), and Q-wave on the presenting electrocardiogram (OR: 2.8). One-month serious outcome or all-cause death occurred in 39 (7.1%) patients in the validation cohort. The ROSE (Risk stratification Of Syncope in the Emergency department) rule had a sensitivity and specificity of 87.2% and 65.5%, respectively, and a negative predictive value of 98.5%. An elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) concentration alone was a major predictor of serious cardiovascular outcomes (8 of 22 events, 36%) and all-cause deaths (8 of 9 deaths, 89%).
Conclusions: The ROSE rule has excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value in the identification of high-risk patients with syncope. As a component, BNP seems to be a major predictor of serious cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause death. The ROSE rule and BNP measurement might be valuable risk stratification tools in patients with emergency presentations of syncope and should now be subjected to external validation.
Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.