Background: To assess the likelihood of intermediate-term event-free survival (freedom from death, coronary artery bypass surgery, and myocardial infarction) in patients with multivessel coronary disease undergoing coronary angioplasty, 350 consecutive patients from four clinical sites were carefully evaluated and followed for 22 +/- 10 months.
Methods and results: Eight clinical variables were evaluated at the clinical sites, and 23 angiographic variables describing the number, morphology, and topography of coronary stenoses were evaluated at a core angiographic laboratory. Most patients had Canadian Cardiovascular Society class III or IV angina (72%), two-vessel coronary disease (68%), and well-preserved left ventricular function (mean ejection fraction, 58 +/- 12%; range, 18-85%). Follow-up was complete in 99% of patients. At 2 years, event-free survival was 72%, overall survival was 96%, freedom from bypass surgery was 82%, and freedom from nonfatal myocardial infarction without surgery was 96%. Sequential Cox proportional hazards regression analyses allowing stepwise entry of variables prospectively coded as simple, as of intermediate complexity, or as complex found event-free survival to be independently predicted by low Canadian Cardiovascular Society angina class, no diabetes, no proximal left anterior descending stenoses, and the sum of stenosis simplified risk-territory scores of 15 or less. In the absence of class IV angina and these risk factors, 2-year event-free survival was 87% and overall survival was 100%. In the presence of two or more of these risk factors, event-free survival was less than 50%.
Conclusions: Recognition of risk factors for poor long-term outcome in this setting may improve clinical decision making and provide a framework on which to base meaningful subgroup analyses in randomized trials assessing the efficacy of coronary angioplasty.