Individual progression of carotid intima media thickness as a surrogate for vascular risk (PROG-IMT): Rationale and design of a meta-analysis project

Am Heart J. 2010 May;159(5):730-736.e2. doi: 10.1016/j.ahj.2010.02.008.


Carotid intima media thickness (IMT) progression is increasingly used as a surrogate for vascular risk. This use is supported by data from a few clinical trials investigating statins, but established criteria of surrogacy are only partially fulfilled. To provide a valid basis for the use of IMT progression as a study end point, we are performing a 3-step meta-analysis project based on individual participant data. Objectives of the 3 successive stages are to investigate (1) whether IMT progression prospectively predicts myocardial infarction, stroke, or death in population-based samples; (2) whether it does so in prevalent disease cohorts; and (3) whether interventions affecting IMT progression predict a therapeutic effect on clinical end points. Recruitment strategies, inclusion criteria, and estimates of the expected numbers of eligible studies are presented along with a detailed analysis plan.

MeSH terms

  • Carotid Arteries / pathology*
  • Carotid Artery Diseases / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Meta-Analysis as Topic*
  • Multicenter Studies as Topic
  • Myocardial Infarction / epidemiology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Research Design
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Stroke / epidemiology
  • Tunica Intima / pathology*