Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making

J Vasc Surg. 2010 May;51(5 Suppl):52S-68S. doi: 10.1016/j.jvs.2010.01.077.


Background: An intention-to-treat analysis of the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial showed that in patients with severe lower limb ischemia (SLI) due to infrainguinal disease who survived for 2 years after intervention, initial randomization to a bypass surgery (BSX)-first vs balloon angioplasty (BAP)-first revascularization strategy was associated with improvements in subsequent overall survival (OS) and amputation-free survival (AFS) of about 7 and 6 months, respectively. This study explored the value of baseline factors to estimate the likelihood of survival to 2 years for the trial cohort (Cox model) and for individual BASIL trial patients (Weibull model) as an aid to clinical decision making.

Methods: Of 452 patients presenting to 27 United Kingdom hospitals, 228 were randomly assigned to a BSX-first and 224 to a BAP-first revascularization strategy. Patients were monitored for at least 3 years. Baseline factors affecting the survival of the entire cohort were examined with a multivariate Cox model. The chances of survival at 1 and 2 years for patients with given baseline characteristics were estimated with a Weibull parametric model.

Results: At the end of follow-up, 172 patients (38%) were alive without major limb amputation of the trial leg, and 202 (45%) were alive. Baseline factors that were significant in the Cox model were BASIL randomization stratification group, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, age, diabetes, creatinine level, and smoking status. Using these factors to define five equally sized groups, we identified patients with 2-year survival rates of 50% to 90%. The factors that contributed to the Weibull predictive model were age, presence of tissue loss, serum creatinine, number of ankle pressure measurements detectable, maximum ankle pressure measured, a history of myocardial infarction or angina, a history of stroke or transient ischemia attack, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, and smoking status.

Conclusions: Patients in the BASIL trial were at high risk of amputation and death regardless of revascularization strategy. However, baseline factors can be used to stratify those risks. Furthermore, within a parametric Weibull model, certain of these factors can be used to help predict outcomes for individuals. It may thus be possible to define the clinical and anatomic (angiographic) characteristics of SLI patients who are likely-and not likely-to live for >2 years after intervention. Used appropriately in the context of the BASIL trial outcomes, this may aid clinical decision making regarding a BSX- or BAP-first revascularization strategy in SLI patients like those randomized in BASIL.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Multicenter Study
  • Randomized Controlled Trial
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Amputation, Surgical / mortality
  • Angioplasty, Balloon / adverse effects
  • Angioplasty, Balloon / mortality*
  • Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation / mortality
  • Constriction, Pathologic
  • Decision Support Techniques
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Ischemia / diagnostic imaging
  • Ischemia / mortality*
  • Ischemia / surgery
  • Ischemia / therapy*
  • Lower Extremity / blood supply*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Peripheral Vascular Diseases / diagnostic imaging
  • Peripheral Vascular Diseases / mortality*
  • Peripheral Vascular Diseases / surgery
  • Peripheral Vascular Diseases / therapy*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prospective Studies
  • Radiography
  • Reoperation
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Saphenous Vein / transplantation
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Survival Analysis
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • United Kingdom
  • Vascular Surgical Procedures / adverse effects
  • Vascular Surgical Procedures / mortality*

Associated data

  • ISRCTN/ISRCTN45398889