What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

Environ Res. 2010 Aug;110(6):604-11. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006. Epub 2010 Jun 1.


Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cold Temperature*
  • Forecasting
  • Hot Temperature*
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • United States / epidemiology