Prediction of graft dysfunction based on extended criteria donors in the model for end-stage liver disease score era

Transplantation. 2010 Sep 15;90(5):530-9. doi: 10.1097/TP.0b013e3181e86b11.

Abstract

Background: To explain the influence of recipient status combined with the accumulation of extended criteria donor (ECD) variables on the appearance of severe ischemia-reperfusion injury and graft survival in a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based system, we analyzed our most recent consecutive liver transplantations (LTs), dividing them into two periods: 400 LTs (1992-2002; pre-MELD era) and 275 LTs (2002-2007; post-MELD era).

Methods: Primary dysfunction (PD) was defined as primary graft failure that required emergency retransplantation or as initial poor function. Donor variables were included in a regression model to assess the probability of PD.

Results: Donor age, macrovesicular steatosis more than 30%, and cold ischemia time were associated with allograft dysfunction. Mean probability of PD was 14.8%, 19.2%, 27.5%, and 37.4% for ECD 0, 1, 2, and more than or equal to 3, respectively (P=0.003). Distribution of no-mild, moderate, and severe ischemia-reperfusion injuries among MELD categories was 72.53%, 24.17%, and 3.30% (MELD group=12-19); 56.52%, 36.96%, and 6.5% (MELD group=20-28); and 23.91%, 54.35%, and 21.74% (MELD group >or=29), respectively (P=0.043). The development of PD according to ECD variables was 18.8%, 18.1%, 28.0%, and 35.3% for ECD 0, 1, 2, and more than or equal to 3, respectively (P=0.047). These variables were independent predictors of PD (Cox proportional regression model): ECD 2 (relative risk [RR]=1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.25-1.62), ECD 3 (RR=2.74; 95% CI=2.38-3.13), MELD 21 to 30 (RR=1.89; 95% CI=1.32-2.06), and MELD more than or equal to 30 (RR=3.38; 95% CI=2.43-3.86). Graft survival decreased, whereas MELD and the number of ECD variables increased.

Conclusion: The combination of three or more ECD variables and an MELD more than or equal to 29 is the worst scenario for graft success after LT.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cardiotonic Agents / therapeutic use
  • Dopamine / therapeutic use
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver Failure / surgery*
  • Liver Transplantation / adverse effects
  • Liver Transplantation / statistics & numerical data*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Patient Selection*
  • Probability
  • Prospective Studies
  • Regression Analysis
  • Reperfusion Injury / complications
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Tissue Donors / statistics & numerical data*

Substances

  • Cardiotonic Agents
  • Dopamine