Objectives: To estimate the proportion of all-cause adult patient attrition from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in service delivery settings in sub-Saharan Africa through 36 months on treatment.
Methods: We identified cohorts within Ovid Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and four conference abstract archives. We summarized retention rates from studies describing observational cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa reporting on adult HIV 1- infected patients initiating first-line three-drug ART. We estimated all-cause attrition rates for 6, 12, 18, 24, or 36 months after ART initiation including patients who died or were lost to follow-up (as defined by the author), but excluding transferred patients.
Results: We analysed 33 sources describing 39 cohorts and 226 307 patients. Patients were more likely to be female (median 65%) and had a median age at initiation of 37 (range 34-40). Median starting CD4 count was 109 cells/mm(3). Loss to follow-up was the most common cause of attrition (59%), followed by death (41%). Median attrition at 12, 24 and 36 months was 22.6% (range 7%-45%), 25% (range 11%-32%) and 29.5% (range 13%-36.1%) respectively. After pooling data in a random-effects meta-analysis, retention declined from 86.1% at 6 months to 80.2% at 12 months, 76.8% at 24 months and 72.3% at 36 months. Adjusting for variable follow-up time in a sensitivity analysis, 24 month retention was 70.0% (range: 66.7%-73.3%), while 36 month retention was 64.6% (range: 57.5%-72.1%).
Conclusions: Our findings document the difficulties in retaining patients in care for lifelong treatment, and the progress being made in raising overall retention rates.