Aims: Risk assessment scores identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. To date no risk assessment scores that can be completed by a lay person have been developed and validated specifically for multiethnic populations in the UK.
Methods: We used data on 6186 subjects aged 40-75 years from a multiethnic UK screening study (73% white European, 22% South Asian). All participants were given a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. We developed logistic regression models for predicting current impaired glucose regulation (impaired fasting glycaemia/impaired glucose tolerance) or Type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from anthropometric measurements and self-reported questionnaires. Using the best-fitting model, we developed the Leicester Risk Assessment score. We externally validated the score using data from 3171 subjects aged 40-75 years from a separate screening study.
Results: The components of the final model are age, ethnicity [white European vs. other (predominantly South Asian)], sex, first degree family history of diabetes, antihypertensive therapy or history of hypertension, waist circumference and body mass index. The score ranges from 0 to 47. Validating this model using the data from the second screening study gave an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 72% (95% confidence interval, 69-74%). A cut point of 16 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 45%.
Conclusions: The Leicester Risk Assessment score can be used to identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus in UK multiethnic populations. The score is simple (seven questions) and non-invasive.