Adaptive index models for marker-based risk stratification

Biostatistics. 2011 Jan;12(1):68-86. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxq047. Epub 2010 Jul 27.


We use the term "index predictor" to denote a score that consists of K binary rules such as "age > 60" or "blood pressure > 120 mm Hg." The index predictor is the sum of these binary scores, yielding a value from 0 to K. Such indices as often used in clinical studies to stratify population risk: They are usually derived from subject area considerations. In this paper, we propose a fast data-driven procedure for automatically constructing such indices for linear, logistic, and Cox regression models. We also extend the procedure to create indices for detecting treatment-marker interactions. The methods are illustrated on a study with protein biomarkers as well as a large microarray gene expression study.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Biomarkers / analysis*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Ovarian Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Regression Analysis*
  • Risk Assessment / methods*


  • Biomarkers