Different population-level vaccination effectiveness for HPV types 16, 18, 6 and 11

Sex Transm Infect. 2011 Feb;87(1):41-3. doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.044412. Epub 2010 Oct 5.


Background: Given that the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine types have different durations of infectiousness and infectivity, the population-level vaccine effectiveness of these types may differ even if vaccine efficacy is identical.

Objective: To compare the type-specific effectiveness of vaccination against HPV types 16, 18, 6 and 11.

Methods: An individual-based stochastic model of HPV transmission (18 HPV-types) in a population stratified by age, gender and sexual activity was developed. Multiple parameter sets were identified by fitting the model to sexual behaviour data and age- and type-specific HPV prevalence.

Results: Under base case assumptions (70% coverage, 99% vaccine efficacy per act and 20 years' duration of protection), vaccinating 12-year-old girls is predicted to reduce HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-6/11 prevalence by 61% (80% uncertainty interval (UI) 53-77), 92% (80% UI 65-100) and 100% (80% UI 97-100), respectively, 50 years after the start of the vaccination programme. Differences in type-specific vaccine effectiveness increased over time, and decreased with improved vaccine efficacy characteristics.

Conclusions: For the same vaccine efficacy, the population-level impact of HPV vaccination will most likely be different, with HPV-16, the most oncogenic type, having the lowest effectiveness. These results should be taken into account when designing and interpreting post-vaccination surveillance studies.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Child
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Papillomavirus Infections / prevention & control*
  • Papillomavirus Vaccines*
  • Prevalence
  • Sexual Behavior
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Treatment Outcome


  • Papillomavirus Vaccines