Forecasting the burden of advanced knee osteoarthritis over a 10-year period in a cohort of 60-64 year-old US adults

Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2011 Jan;19(1):44-50. doi: 10.1016/j.joca.2010.10.009. Epub 2010 Oct 16.


Objective: To forecast the burden of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the elderly US population over a 10-year horizon.

Design: Using a computer simulation model of the natural history and management of knee OA combined with population-based data from the 2008 US Census we projected the 10-year burden of knee OA among persons 60-64 years of age. Knee OA incidence and progression rates were derived from national cohorts and calibrated to published literature.

Results: Using national data we estimated that 13% of 14,338,292 adults 60-64 years old have prevalent symptomatic, radiographic knee OA. Among persons surviving the next decade, 20% will have symptomatic advanced (Kellgren-Lawrence [K-L] grade 3) or end-stage (K-L 4) knee OA. Prevalence of advanced knee OA will range from 10% among non-obese to 35% among obese persons. Our estimates show that a more sensitive imaging tool, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), may increase the number of OA cases diagnosed by up to 94% assuming that 50% of all 'pre-radiographic knee OA' (K-L 1) has some evidence of cartilage degeneration seen on MRI.

Conclusions: Projecting new and advanced cases of knee OA among persons aged 60-64 years over the next decade creates a benchmark that can be used to evaluate population-based benefits of future disease-modifying OA drugs that are currently undergoing testing at various stages.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Osteoarthritis, Knee / epidemiology*
  • Prevalence
  • United States / epidemiology