Methods of competing risks analysis of end-stage renal disease and mortality among people with diabetes

BMC Med Res Methodol. 2010 Oct 21;10:97. doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-10-97.


Background: When a patient experiences an event other than the one of interest in the study, usually the probability of experiencing the event of interest is altered. By contrast, disease-free survival time analysis by standard methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier method and the standard Cox model, does not distinguish different causes in the presence of competing risks. Alternative approaches use the cumulative incidence estimator by the Cox models on cause-specific and on subdistribution hazards models. We applied cause-specific and subdistribution hazards models to a diabetes dataset with two competing risks (end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death without ESRD) to measure the relative effects of covariates and cumulative incidence functions.

Results: In this study, the cumulative incidence curve of the risk of ESRD by the cause-specific hazards model was revealed to be higher than the curves generated by the subdistribution hazards model. However, the cumulative incidence curves of risk of death without ESRD based on those three models were very similar.

Conclusions: In analysis of competing risk data, it is important to present both the results of the event of interest and the results of competing risks. We recommend using either the cause-specific hazards model or the subdistribution hazards model for a dominant risk. However, for a minor risk, we do not recommend the subdistribution hazards model and a cause-specific hazards model is more appropriate. Focusing the interpretation on one or a few causes and ignoring the other causes is always associated with a risk of overlooking important features which may influence our interpretation.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Cause of Death
  • Diabetes Complications / epidemiology*
  • Diabetes Mellitus / mortality*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / epidemiology*
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / etiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Factors