Iterative reconstruction algorithms have been widely used in PET and SPECT emission tomography. Accurate modeling of photon noise propagation is crucial for quantitative tomography applications. Iteration-based noise propagation methods have been developed for only a few algorithms that have explicit multiplicative update equations. And there are discrepancies between the iteration-based methods and Fessler's fixed-point method because of improper approximations. In this paper, we present a unified theoretical prediction of noise propagation for any penalized expectation maximization (EM) algorithm where the EM approach incorporates a penalty term. The proposed method does not require an explicit update equation. The update equation is assumed to be implicitly defined by a differential equation of a surrogate function. We derive the expressions using the implicit function theorem, Taylor series and the chain rule from vector calculus. We also derive the fixed-point expressions when iterative algorithms converge and show the consistency between the proposed method and the fixed-point method. These expressions are solely defined in terms of the partial derivatives of the surrogate function and the Fisher information matrices. We also apply the theoretical noise predictions for iterative reconstruction algorithms in emission tomography. Finally, we validate the theoretical predictions for MAP-EM and OSEM algorithms using Monte Carlo simulations with Jaszczak-like and XCAT phantoms, respectively.