[Clinical applicability of the framingham 30-year risk score. Usefulness in cardiovascular risk stratification and the diagnosis of carotid atherosclerotic plaque]

Abstract

Introduction and objectives: The traditional Framingham score underestimates cardiovascular risk in certain populations. Extending its time-scale to 30 years and assessing its relationship with the presence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque may improve risk stratification. The objectives were: a) to determine the percentage of patients previously classified with the traditional score who were reclassified when using Framingham 30-year risk score; b) to analyze the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque; and c) to determine the diagnostic potential of the 30-year score to detect carotid plaque.

Methods: A carotid Doppler ultrasound study was performed and the Framingham 10-year risk score and 30-year score (based on lipids and body mass index) for "hard" cardiovascular events were calculated in a population of primary prevention patients. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted.

Results: In total, 305 subjects were included (age 48 [11] years, 52% men). The 30-year scores based on lipids and on body mass index reclassified 70% and 63% of the population, respectively. Prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.5% and associated gradually with risk category. The area under the curve and optimal cutoff points of the 30-year score to detect carotid plaque were 0.862 and 26% (based on lipids) and 0.845 and 22% (based on body mass index), respectively.

Conclusions: The 30-year score reclassified a large number of patients and discriminated between those with or without evidence of carotid plaque.