Population Impact Analysis: a framework for assessing the population impact of a risk or intervention

J Public Health (Oxf). 2012 Mar;34(1):83-9. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdr026. Epub 2011 Apr 11.


Background: To describe an organizing framework, Population Impact Analysis, for applying the findings of systematic reviews of public health literature to estimating the impact on a local population, with the aim of implementing evidence-based decision-making.

Methods: A framework using population impact measures to demonstrate how resource allocation decisions may be influenced by using evidence-based medicine and local data. An example of influenza vaccination in the over 65s in Trafford to reduce hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is used.

Results: The number of COPD admissions due to non-vaccination of the over 65 in Trafford was 16.4 (95% confidence interval: 13.5; 19.5) and if vaccination rates were taken up to 90%, 11.5 (95% confidence interval: 9.3; 13.8) admissions could have been prevented. A total of 705 (95% confidence interval: 611; 861) people would have to be vaccinated against influenza to prevent one hospital admission.

Conclusions: Population Impact Analysis can help the 'implementation' aspect of evidence for population health. It has been developed to support public health policy makers at both local and national/international levels in their role of commissioning services.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Decision Making
  • Disease Progression
  • Evidence-Based Medicine / economics*
  • Evidence-Based Medicine / methods
  • Evidence-Based Medicine / standards
  • Health Policy
  • Humans
  • Influenza Vaccines / economics
  • Influenza Vaccines / therapeutic use
  • Influenza, Human / complications
  • Influenza, Human / economics
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / economics*
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / methods
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / standards
  • Patient Admission / economics
  • Patient Admission / statistics & numerical data
  • Public Health / economics*
  • Public Health / methods
  • Public Health / standards
  • Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / economics
  • Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / prevention & control
  • Resource Allocation
  • Review Literature as Topic
  • United Kingdom


  • Influenza Vaccines