Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008

Abstract

Despite the emergence of regional climate policies, growth in global CO(2) emissions has remained strong. From 1990 to 2008 CO(2) emissions in developed countries (defined as countries with emission-reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol, Annex B) have stabilized, but emissions in developing countries (non-Annex B) have doubled. Some studies suggest that the stabilization of emissions in developed countries was partially because of growing imports from developing countries. To quantify the growth in emission transfers via international trade, we developed a trade-linked global database for CO(2) emissions covering 113 countries and 57 economic sectors from 1990 to 2008. We find that the emissions from the production of traded goods and services have increased from 4.3 Gt CO(2) in 1990 (20% of global emissions) to 7.8 Gt CO(2) in 2008 (26%). Most developed countries have increased their consumption-based emissions faster than their territorial emissions, and non-energy-intensive manufacturing had a key role in the emission transfers. The net emission transfers via international trade from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 Gt CO(2) in 1990 to 1.6 Gt CO(2) in 2008, which exceeds the Kyoto Protocol emission reductions. Our results indicate that international trade is a significant factor in explaining the change in emissions in many countries, from both a production and consumption perspective. We suggest that countries monitor emission transfers via international trade, in addition to territorial emissions, to ensure progress toward stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Fig. 1.

The development of various global macrovariables indexed to 1990. Source: Population (US Census Bureau), GDP, and international trade in constant prices (United Nations National Account Estimates of Main Aggregates), fossil-fuel and process emissions (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center) (23), emissions embodied in global trade (present study), and the net emission transfers between Annex B and non-Annex B countries (present study).

Fig. 2.

The net emission transfers between non-Annex B and Annex B countries using the TSTRD, EEBT, and MRIO methods. The change in the net emission transfers over time are compared with the Kyoto Protocol emission reduction target of ∼5% relative to 1990 (red line) and the average net emission transfer from 1990 to 2008 (black line). The EEBT and MRIO methods give a larger net emission transfer from non-Annex B to Annex B countries, signifying that the TSTRD method is conservative. The MRIO is larger than the EEBT method as the MRIO considers global supply chains (see text).

Fig. 3.

The net change in territorial emissions (1990–2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between each country and non-Annex B countries (1990–2008). The red stars represent pledged emission reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol. Emission transfers between Annex B countries have been removed, as these emissions are already covered in the Kyoto Protocol. Europe represents the Annex B EU27 countries plus Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.

Fig. 4.

The development of the net emission transfer via international trade between Annex B and non-Annex B countries for six aggregated regions from 1990 to 2008 using the TSTRD method. Net emission transfers represent the emissions from the production of exports (SI Appendix, Fig. S4) minus the emissions in other countries from the production of imports (SI Appendix, Fig. S5). The colored areas are the emission transfers for each region, the solid black line is the net emission transfers for each region with the rest of the world, and the dashed black line is the net emission transfers for the Annex B with non-Annex B countries (comparable with Fig. 2).

Fig. 5.

The development of the net emission transfer via international trade between Annex B and non-Annex B countries for seven aggregated sectors from 1990 to 2008 using the TSTRD method. Net emission transfers represent the emissions from the production of exports minus the emissions in other countries from the production of imports (SI Appendix, Fig. S7). The solid black line is the net emission transfers for Annex B and non-Annex B countries (compare with Fig. 2) and the colored areas are the balance for each sector.