Optimizing statin treatment decisions for diabetes patients in the presence of uncertain future adherence

Med Decis Making. 2012 Jan-Feb;32(1):154-66. doi: 10.1177/0272989X11404076. Epub 2011 Apr 29.

Abstract

Background: Statins are an important part of the treatment plan for patients with type 2 diabetes. However, patients who are prescribed statins often take less than the prescribed amount or stop taking the drug altogether. This suboptimal adherence may decrease the benefit of statin initiation.

Objective: To estimate the influence of adherence on the optimal timing of statin initiation for patients with type 2 diabetes.

Method: The authors use a Markov decision process (MDP) model to optimize the treatment decision for patients with type 2 diabetes. Their model incorporates a Markov model linking adherence to treatment effectiveness and long-term health outcomes. They determine the optimal time of statin initiation that minimizes expected costs and maximizes expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

Results: In the long run, approximately 25% of patients remain highly adherent to statins. Based on the MDP model, generic statins lower costs in men and result in a small increase in costs in women relative to no treatment. Patients are able to noticeably increase their expected QALYs by 0.5 to 2 years depending on the level of adherence.

Conclusions: Adherence-improving interventions can increase expected QALYs by as much as 1.5 years. Given suboptimal adherence to statins, it is optimal to delay the start time for statins; however, changing the start time alone does not lead to significant changes in costs or QALYs.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Decision Making*
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / drug therapy*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors / therapeutic use*
  • Male
  • Markov Chains
  • Middle Aged
  • Patient Compliance*
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Substances

  • Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors