Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States

Am J Public Health. 2011 Jul;101(7):1236-40. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2011.300179. Epub 2011 May 12.


We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633,252 overall and 237,317 for Blacks.

MeSH terms

  • Black People / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Menthol*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Prevalence
  • Smoking / epidemiology
  • Smoking / legislation & jurisprudence*
  • Smoking / mortality
  • Smoking Cessation / statistics & numerical data
  • United States / epidemiology


  • Menthol