Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: a time series analysis

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 Jun;84(6):862-9. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277.

Abstract

Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association (P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Africa, Eastern
  • Cholera / epidemiology*
  • Cholera / transmission
  • Climate*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Environmental Monitoring
  • Epidemiological Monitoring
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Oceans and Seas
  • Population Surveillance*
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Factors
  • Seasons
  • Tanzania / epidemiology
  • Temperature