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. 2011 Aug;59(8):1471-6.
doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2011.03493.x. Epub 2011 Jun 30.

The vulnerable elders survey-13 predicts hospital complications and mortality in older adults with traumatic injury: a pilot study

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The vulnerable elders survey-13 predicts hospital complications and mortality in older adults with traumatic injury: a pilot study

Lillian Min et al. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2011 Aug.

Abstract

Objectives: To determine whether the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES)-13, a survey based on functional status that has been validated in uninjured older populations, will predict complications and mortality in injured older adults.

Design: Prospective observational pilot study.

Setting: Level 1 trauma center.

Participants: Sixty-three older adults (≥65) with a traumatic injury who survived and required inpatient care for at least 24 hours.

Predictor: preinjury VES-13 score (0-10 points, higher=greater risk) obtained by interviewing participants or proxies.

Outcomes: composite outcome of one or more medical complications (e.g., aspiration pneumonia, respiratory failure) or death, discharge destination (home, nursing home, death), length of stay, hospital charges. Covariates: Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Injury Severity Score (ISS), and sex.

Results: Of the 63 participants, 30 (48%) were discharged to home and 28 (44%) to a nursing facility, 21 (33%) developed one or more complications, and four (6%) died. In a model that also controlled for ISS and comorbidity, each additional VES-13 point was associated with greater risk of complication or death (odds ratio=1.53 per point, 95% confidence interval=1.12-2.07).

Conclusion: The VES-13, in combination with injury severity, may be useful early in the hospital course to predict complications and death in older adults with traumatic injury, potentially identifying candidates who may benefit from additional inpatient geriatric services.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. VES-13 Predicts Hospital Morbidity and Mortality
Explanation: The predicted risks of the composite outcome (development of a hospital complication and/or death) are plotted against the VES-13 score (solid line). Higher VES-13 scores represent greater risk. The dotted lines represent 95% confidence intervals (obtained by bootstrapping 1000 times, percentile method). The model was adjusted for Injury Severity Score (ISS), Charlson Comorbidity Index, and gender. The displayed predicted risks are for a male with ISS score of 25 (severe injury), and no co-morbidities. VES-13= Vulnerable Elders-13 Survey

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