Toxic cyanobacteria blooms are increasingly frequent and object of greater concern due to its ecological and health impacts. One important lack in the toxic cyanobacteria research field is to understand which parameters influence most and how they operate to regulate the overall levels of cyanotoxins in a body of water. MC concentration is believed to be influenced by changes in several seasonal environmental factors that influence the succession of toxic cyanobacteria. In the last years, qPCR (quantitative polymerase chain reaction) has been applied to determine the seasonal and temporal shifts in the proportions of MC-producing and non-MC-producing subpopulations by quantifying both mcy genotypes and total population numbers. We discuss the most prominent and recent studies using qPCR to address hepatotoxic cyanobacteria population dynamics and evaluate how they helped understanding the factors promoting the growth of toxic strains in situ and the succession of hepatotoxin-producing genera in natural populations.