Comparison between Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and logistic EuroSCORE for predicting mortality in patients referred for transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Cardiovasc Revasc Med. Nov-Dec 2011;12(6):345-9. doi: 10.1016/j.carrev.2011.04.005. Epub 2011 Jul 7.

Abstract

Background: The primary inclusion criteria from both the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score and the logistic EuroSCORE are currently used to identify high-risk and inoperable patients eligible for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). We aimed to examine the correlation between STS and logistic EuroSCOREs and their performance characteristics in patients referred for TAVI.

Methods: The study cohort consisted of 718 high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis who were considered for participation in a TAVI clinical trial. The performance of the STS and logistic EuroSCOREs was evaluated in three groups: (a) medical management or balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV), 474 (66%); (b) 133 patients (18.5%) with surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR); (c) 111 (15.4%) with TAVI. The mean age was 81.8 ± 8.1 years, and 394 (54.8%) were female.

Results: The mean STS score was 11.5 ± 6.1, and the mean logistic EuroSCORE was 39.7 ± 23.0. Pearson correlation coefficient showed moderate correlation between the STS and logistic EuroSCOREs (r = 0.61, P < .001). At a median follow-up of 190 days (range, 67-476), 282 patients (39.2%) died. The STS and logistic EuroSCOREs were both higher in patients who died as compared to those in survivors (13.1 ± 6.2 vs.10.0 ± 5.8 and 43.4 ± 23.1 vs. 37.5 ± 22, respectively; P < .001). The observed and predicted 30-day mortality rates in the medical/BAV group were 10.1% observed, 12.3% by STS and 43.1% by logistic EuroSCORE. In the surgical AVR group, the rates were 12.8% observed, 8.4% by STS and 25.6% by logistic EuroSCORE. In the TAVI group, the rates were 11.7% observed, 11.8% by STS and 41.2% by logistic EuroSCORE. The odds ratio (OR) for 30-day mortality in the medical/BAV group was 1.05 (P = .01) with STS and 1.003 (P = .7) with logistic EuroSCORE. In the surgical AVR group, the OR was 1.09 (P = .07) with STS and 1.007 (P = .6) with logistic EuroSCORE. In the TAVI group, the OR was 1.14 (P = .03) with STS and 1.03 (P = .04) with logistic EuroSCORE.

Conclusion: In high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis, STS score is superior to the logistic EuroSCORE in predicting mortality. Clinical judgment should play a major role in the selection of patients with severe aortic stenosis for the different therapeutic options.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aortic Valve Stenosis / diagnostic imaging
  • Aortic Valve Stenosis / mortality*
  • Aortic Valve Stenosis / surgery
  • Aortic Valve Stenosis / therapy*
  • Cardiac Catheterization / adverse effects
  • Cardiac Catheterization / mortality*
  • Catheterization / adverse effects
  • Catheterization / mortality*
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • District of Columbia
  • Female
  • Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / adverse effects
  • Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / methods
  • Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Odds Ratio
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Societies, Medical*
  • Thoracic Surgery*
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Ultrasonography