Objective: To evaluate the short-term prognostic values for the model of end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na), end-stage liver disease sodium (MELDNa) and their dynamic changes in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACLF-HBV).
Methods: A total of 172 patients diagnosed with ACLF-HBV, admitted between January 2007 to February 2009 and hospitalized for over 2 weeks, were retrospectively recruited. The predictive accuracy of MELD-Na, MELDNa and their dynamic change (Δ) was compared by the method of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Results: The 3-month mortality rate was 43.6%. The largest concordance (c) statistic predicting 3-month mortality was MELDNa score after a 2-week treatment (0.790), followed by MELD-Na (0.728) score, ΔMELDNa (0.713) and ΔMELD-Na (0.646). The average MELD-Na, MELDNa scores after a 2-week treatment and ΔMELD-Na, ΔMELDNa of survival group were 27.7 ± 8.9, 25.9 ± 5.0, -2.1 ± 10.0 and -1.9 ± 4.2 while those of dead group 34.6 ± 8.7, 31.5 ± 5.0, 2.4 ± 10.3 and 2.4 ± 10.3. There was significant difference in MELD-Na, MELDNa, ΔMELD-Na and ΔMELDNa between two groups. The 3-month mortality of the MELD-Na scores group < 25, 25 - 30, 30 - 35 and > 35 were 18.9%, 37.8%, 57.6% and 65.3% while the MELDNa scores group 14.6%, 33.3%, 72.5% and 84.2% respectively. There was significant difference in the 3-month mortality between four groups. The 3-month mortality of the ΔMELD-Na > 0 group was 58.5% while that of the ΔMELD-Na ≤ 0 group 30%; the 3-month mortality of the ΔMELDNa > 0 group was 61.3% while that of the ΔMELDNa ≤ 0 group 29.9%. There was significant difference between two groups.
Conclusion: MELDNa score after a 2-week treatment is a promising and useful predictor for 3-month mortality in ACLF-HBV patients. The predictive value may further improve if in conjunctions with dynamic changes.