Prediction model for the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence: evidence for a cohort-dependent increase within the next two decades in Germany

Pediatr Diabetes. 2012 Feb;13(1):15-20. doi: 10.1111/j.1399-5448.2011.00799.x. Epub 2011 Aug 3.


Objective: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany.

Methods: The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases).

Results: The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r(2) = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000).

Conclusions: In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Age Distribution
  • Age of Onset
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Cohort Effect
  • Cohort Studies
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / epidemiology*
  • Female
  • Forecasting / methods
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Prevalence
  • Sex Factors