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. 2011 Nov;13(11):817-22.
doi: 10.1111/j.1477-2574.2011.00373.x. Epub 2011 Sep 16.

External validation of a pre-operative nomogram predicting peri-operative mortality risk after liver resections for malignancy

Mashaal Dhir  1 , Srinevas K Reddy, Lynette M Smith, Fred Ullrich, James Wallis Marsh, Allan Tsung, David A Geller, Chandrakanth Are
Affiliations

External validation of a pre-operative nomogram predicting peri-operative mortality risk after liver resections for malignancy

Mashaal Dhir et al. HPB (Oxford). 2011 Nov.

Abstract

Aim: A pre-operative nomogram using a population-based database to predict peri-operative mortality risk after liver resections for malignancy has recently been developed. The aim of the present study was to perform an external validation of the nomogram using data from a high volume institution.

Methods: The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database (2000-2004) was used initially to construct the nomogram. The dataset for external validation was obtained from a high volume centre specializing in hepatobiliary surgery. Validation was performed using calibration plots and concordance index.

Results: A total of 794 patients who underwent liver resection from the years 2000-2010 at the external institute were included in the validation set with an observed mortality rate of 1.6%. The mean total points for this sample of patients was 124.9 [standard error (SE) 1.8, range 0-383] which translates to a nomogram predicted mortality rate of 1.5%, similar to the actual observed overall mortality rate. The nomogram concordance index was 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.82] and calibration plots stratified by quartiles revealed good agreement between the predicted and observed mortality rates.

Conclusions: The present study provides an external validation of the pre-operative nomogram to predict the risk of peri-operative mortality after liver resection for malignancy.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Representative figure of the nomgram (published with permission from Springerlink. Originally published in Dhir et al. J Gastrointest Surg 2010). CHF, Congestive heart failure; COPD, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Unk, Unknown
Figure 2
Figure 2
Calibration plot for the external validation dataset
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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