Without the individual mandate, the Affordable Care Act would still cover 23 million; premiums would rise less than predicted

Abstract

Many policy analysts fear that eliminating the individual health insurance mandate and penalty from the Affordable Care Act of 2010 would lead to a "premium spiral," in which healthy people would drop coverage, premiums would soar, and the number of people with coverage would plummet. However, there are other provisions of the law that would greatly mitigate this effect. For example, the subsidies provided in the law to help people purchase coverage through health insurance exchanges would restrain a premium spiral by absorbing much of the impact of premium increases. We estimate that if the mandate were lifted, premiums in the individual market would increase by 12.6 percent-somewhat less than other estimates-with 7.8 million people losing coverage, versus other estimates for coverage loss of 16-24 million people. In sum, the Affordable Care Act would still cover 23 million people who would have been uninsured without the law. Our study suggests that although the mandate would have important effects on premiums and coverage, it might not be essential to the act's successful implementation.