Effects of the Bam earthquake on employment: a shift-share analysis

Disasters. 2012 Jul;36(3):420-38. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2011.01268.x. Epub 2011 Nov 17.


Disasters have potential short-term and long-term impacts on employment and employment structures in affected regions. While measuring the full economic impact of a disaster requires sophisticated econometrics and mathematical simulations, conventional regional economic models such as shift-share analysis can be used to assess some of these effects. This paper applies shift-share analysis to understand potential long-term impacts of disasters on employment using the December 2003 Bam earthquake as a case study. The results provide further evidence that disasters could have significant long-term effects on the employment structure of affected regions.

MeSH terms

  • Disasters / economics*
  • Earthquakes / economics*
  • Employment / statistics & numerical data*
  • Employment / trends
  • Humans
  • Iran
  • Models, Economic*
  • Time