This article estimates the potential savings to the Medicaid program of using 1915c Home and Community Based Services (HCBS) waivers rather than institutional care. For Medicaid HCBS waiver expenditures of $25 billion in 2006, we estimate the national savings to be over $57 billion, or $57,338 per waiver participant in 2006 compared with the cost of Medicaid institutional care (for which all waiver participants are eligible). When taking into account a potential 50% "woodwork effect" (for people who might have refused institutional services), the saving would be $21 billion. This analysis demonstrates that HCBS waiver programs present significant direct financial savings to Medicaid long-term care (LTC) programs.