Objective: • To determine whether the prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV) risk count (i.e. the number of times PSAV exceeds a specific threshold) could increase the specificity of screening for prostate cancer and potentially life-threatening tumours.
Patients and methods: • From 1989 to 2001, we calculated two serial PSAV measurements in 18 214 prostate cancer screening-study participants, of whom 1125 (6.2%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer. • The PSAV risk count was determined as the number of PSAV measurements of >0.4 ng/mL/year (0, 1, or 2). • We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and reclassification analyses to examine the ability of PSAV risk count to predict screen-detected and high-grade prostate cancer.
Results: • The PSAV was >0.4 ng/mL/year twice (risk count 2) in 40% of prostate cancer cases compared with only 4% of those with no cancer (P < 0.001). • After adjusting for age and PSA level, a PSAV risk count of 2 was associated with an 8.2-fold increased risk of prostate cancer (95% confidence interval 7.0-9.6, P < 0.001) and 5.4-fold increased risk of Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer on biopsy. • Compared with a model with age and PSA level, the addition of the PSAV risk count significantly improved discrimination (area under the ROC curve 0.625 vs 0.725, P= 0.031) and reclassified individuals for the risk of high-grade prostate cancer (net reclassification, P < 0.001).
Conclusions: • Sustained rises in PSA indicate a significantly greater risk of prostate cancer, particularly high-grade disease. • Compared with men with a risk count of ≤1, those with two PSAV measurements of >0.4 ng/mL/year (risk count 2) had an 8-fold increased risk of prostate cancer and 5.4-fold increased risk of Gleason 8-10 disease on biopsy, adjusting for age and PSA level. • Compared to PSA alone, PSAV risk count may be useful in reducing unnecessary biopsies and the diagnosis of low-risk prostate cancer.
© 2012 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2012 BJU INTERNATIONAL.