Early warning signals for critical transitions: a generalized modeling approach

PLoS Comput Biol. 2012 Feb;8(2):e1002360. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002360. Epub 2012 Feb 2.

Abstract

Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach through several examples, including a previously published fisheries model. We regard our method as complementary to existing early warning signals, taking an approach of intermediate complexity between model-free approaches and fully parameterized simulations. One potential advantage of our approach is that, under appropriate conditions, it may reduce the amount of time series data required for a robust early warning signal.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation
  • Environment
  • Fisheries
  • Fishes
  • Food Chain
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Population Dynamics
  • Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted*
  • Systems Theory*