Ten-year fracture risk in the assessment of osteoporosis management efficacy in postmenopausal women: a pilot study

Climacteric. 2013 Feb;16(1):117-26. doi: 10.3109/13697137.2011.646345. Epub 2012 Feb 15.


Background: The aim of the reported longitudinal, retrospective pilot study was to establish changes in 10-year fracture risk in postmenopausal women with respect to applied fracture management.

Methods: A group of 191 postmenopausal women with a mean age of 68.76± 6.72 years was divided into subgroups. The subgroups were made up of untreated patients (n = 41), patients treated with vitamin D plus calcium (n = 46), and patients treated with bisphosphonates, vitamin D and calcium (n = 104). Repeated densitometric measurements and clinical data were taken into consideration (both baseline and follow-up). Ten-year fracture risk was established, using FRAX(TM) and Garvan nomograms. The mean follow-up period was 2.01±1.87 years.

Results: Generally, the mean fracture probability increased in the studied women over the observation period. Patients on bisphosphonate therapy demonstrated the smallest increase in fracture probability. The probability rate for either any fractures or hip fractures decreased when the T-score increased. A diminished number of falls non-significantly decreased the probability for hip fractures and any fractures.

Conclusion: Ten-year fracture risk increased irrespective of applied management, while a decreased risk was observed only in women with improved bone status.

MeSH terms

  • Accidental Falls / statistics & numerical data
  • Aged
  • Bone Density Conservation Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Calcium / therapeutic use
  • Diphosphonates / therapeutic use
  • Drug Therapy, Combination
  • Female
  • Fractures, Bone / etiology*
  • Hip Fractures / etiology
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Middle Aged
  • Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / complications*
  • Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / drug therapy*
  • Probability
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Vitamin D / therapeutic use


  • Bone Density Conservation Agents
  • Diphosphonates
  • Vitamin D
  • Calcium