Objective: We evaluated whether the addition of carotid intima media thickness and plaque (CIMT-P), and a single nucleotide polymorphism on chromosome 9p21 (9p21) together improve coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction in the ARIC study.
Methods: Ten year CHD risk was estimated using the ARIC coronary risk score (ACRS) alone and in combination with CIMT-P and 9p21 individually and together in White participants (n=9338). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model calibration, net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination index (IDI) and number of individuals reclassified were estimated.
Results: The AUC of the ACRS, ACRS+9p21, ACRS+CIMT-P and ACRS+CIMT-P+9p21 models were 0.748, 0.751, 0.763 and 0.766 respectively. The percentage of individuals reclassified, model calibration, NRI and IDI improved when CIMT-P and 9p21 were added to the ACRS only model (see manuscript).
Conclusion: Addition of 9p21 allele information to CIMT-P minimally improves CHD risk prediction in whites in the ARIC study.
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