A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu

PLoS One. 2012;7(2):e28873. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0028873. Epub 2012 Feb 17.

Abstract

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Disease Susceptibility / epidemiology
  • Ducks / virology
  • Environment*
  • Influenza A virus / physiology
  • Influenza in Birds / epidemiology*
  • Influenza in Birds / transmission*
  • Models, Biological*
  • North America / epidemiology
  • Periodicity*
  • Prevalence
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Time Factors