Context: Anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) has emerged as a marker of ovarian reserve and a possible surrogate measure of reproductive aging.
Objective: The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive value of AMH levels in determining the median time to menopause for late reproductive age women and the predictive ability of AMH compared to FSH and inhibin b.
Design and setting: A 14-yr follow-up in the Penn Ovarian Aging Study, 1996-2010, was conducted for a randomly identified population-based cohort.
Subjects: A total of 401 late reproductive age women participated in the study.
Main outcome measure: Observed time to menopause was measured.
Results: All participants were premenopausal, with a mean (SD) age of 41.47 (3.52) yr and a median AMH level of 0.68 ng/ml at baseline. AMH strongly predicted time to menopause; age further improved predictions. Among women with a baseline AMH level below 0.20 ng/ml, the median time to menopause was 5.99 yr [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.20-6.33] in the 45- to 48-yr age group and 9.94 yr (95% CI, 3.31-12.73) in the 35- to 39-yr age group. With higher baseline AMH levels above 1.50 ng/ml, the median time to menopause was 6.23 yr in the oldest age group and more than 13.01 yr in the youngest age group. Smoking significantly reduced the time to menopause (hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.19-2.19; P = 0.002). AMH was a stronger predictor of time to menopause than FSH or inhibin b.
Conclusions: AMH is a strong predictor of median time to menopause in late reproductive age women. Age and smoking are significant and independent contributors to the predictions of AMH.