Aim: To define the natural long term course of viral B cirrhosis after the onset of hepatic decompensation and to determine the predictive factors of death.
Methods: Retrospective longitudinal study including 77 cases of viral B cirrhosis among 192 consecutive patients with cirrhosis, hospitalized between 1997 and 2005 for the first hepatic decompensation. All those patients were followed- up until death or until December 2006. The probability of survival after the first hepatic decompensation was calculated using the Kaplan Meier method. The predictive factors of death were determined through univariate and multivariate analyses with the Cox regression model.
Results: Fifty four men and 23 women with an average age of 54±14.9 years were hospitalized for the first decompensation of the viral B cirrhosis. The 77 patients had been under observation for an average period of 24.2 ±21.1 months. During that time 64% among them died. The probability of survival after decompensation was 47% in 2 years and 22 % in 5 years. During follow- up, ascites was the most frequent decompensation (85%) followed by hepatic encephalopathy (38 %), variceal hemorrhage (34 %), jaundice (30%), hepato renal syndrome (27%), hepatocellular carcinoma (21%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (14%). At univariate analysis four factors were predictive of death: Child Pugh C score (p=0.009), hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.01), rate of serum gammaglobulin superior to18g / l (p=0.008) and prothrombin time inferior to 50 % (p=0.02). According to the multivariate analysis only the rate of serum gammaglobulin superior to 18g /l was an independent predictive factor of mortality (p=0,001) with IC (95 %) [1.623 - 5.88].
Conclusion: In Tunisia, the prognosis of viral B cirrhosis after the first decompensation is bad, because a patient on 5 only was able to survive beyond 5 years. Ascites is the most frequent decompensation. Only the rate of serum gammaglobulin superior to 18g / l is an independent predictive factor of mortality.