Who will have health insurance in the future? An updated projection

Abstract

The passage of the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) in the United States put the issues of health care reform and health care costs back in the national spotlight. DeVoe and colleagues previously estimated that the cost of a family health insurance premium would equal the median household income by the year 2025. A slowdown in health care spending tied to the recent economic downturn and the passage of the PPACA occurred after this model was published. In this updated model, we estimate that this threshold will be crossed in 2033, and under favorable assumptions the PPACA may extend this date only to 2037. Continuing to make incremental changes in US health policy will likely not bend the cost curve, which has eluded policy makers for the past 50 years. Private health insurance will become increasingly unaffordable to low-to-middle-income Americans unless major changes are made in the US health care system.

Figure 1

Percentage of change in median household income and family health insurance premium rates in the United States.

Figure 2

Projected annual family health insurance premium costs and average household income in the United States. OOP=out-of-pocket.

Figure 3

Projected annual family health care costs (premium contribution plus out-of-pocket costs) and average household income in the United States. OOP=out-of-pocket.

Figure 4

Family insurance premiums with and without PPACA assumptions of cost savings. PPACA = Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.