Novel risk scoring system with preoperative objective parameters gives a good prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with a left ventricular assist device

Circ J. 2012;76(8):1895-903. doi: 10.1253/circj.cj-12-0182. Epub 2012 May 23.

Abstract

Background: As we have previously reported, the preoperative profile defined by INTERMACS is a good predictor for the prognosis after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation, but is largely dependent on the physician's decision. Several other risk stratification systems including objective parameters (eg, Leitz-Miller, Columbia, Seattle Heart Failure Model, APACHE II) have been proposed to estimate patient's mortality after LVAD implantation.

Methods and results: According to the preoperative data from 59 patients who received LVAD (10 implantable, 49 extracorporeal) since 2002 through 2010, we performed a logistic analysis and constructed a new scoring system (ie, the TODAI VAD score (TVAD score), assigning 8 points to serum albumin <3.2mg/dl (odds ratio [OR] 8.475), 7 points to serum total bilirubin >4.8mg/dl (OR 7.300), 6 points to left ventricular end-diastolic diameter <55mm (OR 5.917), 5 points to central venous pressure >11mmHg (OR 5.128)). The receiver-operating characteristic analysis showed that the area under the curve of our new scoring system (0.864) was significantly larger than any of the abovementioned 5 scoring methods (all P<0.05). With the TVAD score, low (0-8 points), intermediate (9-17 points), and high (18-26 points) risk strata had significantly different 1-year survival rates of 95%, 54%, and 14%, respectively (all P<0.001).

Conclusions: The TVAD score can predict the prognosis after LVAD implantation much better than the previously known methods.

Publication types

  • Clinical Trial
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Bilirubin / blood*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Heart Failure* / blood
  • Heart Failure* / mortality
  • Heart Failure* / therapy
  • Heart-Assist Devices*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Risk Assessment
  • Serum Albumin / metabolism*
  • Survival Rate

Substances

  • Serum Albumin
  • Bilirubin