Rate and risk predictors for development of self-reported type-2 diabetes mellitus over a 5-year period: the SHIELD study

Int J Clin Pract. 2012 Jul;66(7):684-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1742-1241.2012.02952.x.


Aims: This investigation determined the proportion of adults newly diagnosed as having type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and ascertained risk predictors for development of self-reported T2DM.

Methods: The US Study to Help Improve Early evaluation and management of risk factors Leading to Diabetes (SHIELD) survey was a 5-year longitudinal study of adults with and without diabetes mellitus. Adults completed a baseline health questionnaire in 2004 and ≥1 annual follow-up survey through 2009. Respondents with no self-reported diagnosis of diabetes at baseline were followed to measure rate of and assess risk factors for development of T2DM over 5 years.

Results: Among 8582 respondents without diabetes at baseline, 622 (7.2%) reported a diagnosis of T2DM over the subsequent 5 years. Increasing age, family history of T2DM, body mass index ≥30 kg/m(2), abdominal obesity, excessive thirst, asthma, gestational diabetes and 'high blood sugar without diabetes' significantly increased the risk of developing T2DM (p < 0.05 for each). Good to excellent health status and self-reported circulatory problems decreased the risk (p < 0.05 for each).

Conclusions: Among this representative US adult population, the rate of developing T2DM was 7.2% over 5 years. Predictors of T2DM diagnosis identified in this analysis were readily obtainable via self-report.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / epidemiology*
  • Family Characteristics
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Self Report
  • Time Factors
  • United States