Background: Quantitative polymerase chain reactions (qPCR) are used to monitor relative changes in very small amounts of DNA. One drawback to qPCR is reproducibility: measuring the same sample multiple times can yield data that is so noisy that important differences can be dismissed. Numerous analytical methods have been employed that can extract the relative template abundance between samples. However, each method is sensitive to baseline assignment and to the unique shape profiles of individual reactions, which gives rise to increased variance stemming from the analytical procedure itself.
Principal findings: We developed a simple mathematical model that accurately describes the entire PCR reaction profile using only two reaction variables that depict the maximum capacity of the reaction and feedback inhibition. This model allows quantification that is more accurate than existing methods and takes advantage of the brighter fluorescence signals from later cycles. Because the model describes the entire reaction, the influences of baseline adjustment errors, reaction efficiencies, template abundance, and signal loss per cycle could be formalized. We determined that the common cycle-threshold method of data analysis introduces unnecessary variance because of inappropriate baseline adjustments, a dynamic reaction efficiency, and also a reliance on data with a low signal-to-noise ratio.
Significance: Using our model, fits to raw data can be used to determine template abundance with high precision, even when the data contains baseline and signal loss defects. This improvement reduces the time and cost associated with qPCR and should be applicable in a variety of academic, clinical, and biotechnological settings.