Simple and multistate survival curves: can people learn to use them?

Med Decis Making. 2012 Nov-Dec;32(6):792-804. doi: 10.1177/0272989X12451057. Epub 2012 Jun 29.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE AND SAMPLE: This investigation assessed the comprehension of survival curves in a community sample of 88 young and middle-aged adults when several aspects of good practice for graphical communication were implemented, and it compared comprehension for alternative presentation formats. DESIGN, METHOD, and

Measurements: After reading worked examples of using survival curves that provided explanation and answers, participants answered questions on survival data for pairs of treatments. Study 1 compared presenting survival curves for both treatments on the same figure against presentation via 2 separate figures. Study 2 compared presenting data for 3 possible outcome states via a single "multistate" figure for each treatment against presenting each outcome on a separate figure (with both treatments on the same figure). Both studies compared alternative forms of questioning (e.g., "number alive" versus "number dead"). Numeracy levels (self-rated and objective measures) were also assessed.

Results: Comprehension was generally good--exceeding 90% correct answers on half the questions--and was similar across alternative graphical formats. Lower accuracy was observed for questions requiring a calculation but was significantly lower only when the requirement for calculation was not explicit (13%-28% decrements in performance). In study 1, this effect was most acute for those with lower levels of numeracy. Subjective (self-rated) numeracy and objective (measured) numeracy were both moderate positive predictors of overall task accuracy (r ≈ 0.3).

Conclusions: A high degree of accuracy in extracting information from survival curves is possible, as long as any calculations that are required are made explicit (e.g., finding differences between 2 survival rates). Therefore, practitioners need not avoid using survival curves in discussions with patients, although clear and explicit explanations are important.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Survival Analysis*
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Young Adult