Prognostic impact of the addition of peak oxygen consumption to the Seattle Heart Failure Model in a transplant referral population

J Heart Lung Transplant. 2012 Aug;31(8):817-24. doi: 10.1016/j.healun.2012.04.006.


Background: In this study we investigated whether the addition of peak oxygen consumption (VO(2)) improves the predictive accuracy of the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM). The SHFM is a validated multivariate risk model that uses NYHA classification to assess functional capacity rather than peak oxygen consumption (VO(2)).

Methods: Outpatients (n = 1,240) evaluated for transplant at three centers had their SHFM score calculated and peak VO(2) measured. The outcomes assessed were death/LVAD/urgent transplant with censoring at the time of elective transplant.

Results: Over the course of 4.0 (mean) years of observation, there were 571 events. Both the SHFM score (χ(2) = 227) and peak VO(2) (χ(2) = 88, both p < 0.0001) were highly predictive of outcomes. The SHFM and peak VO(2) were modestly correlated (r = 0.39, p < 0.0001). In a multivariate Cox model, peak VO(2) added to the SHFM with a hazard ratio of 0.949 (p < 0.0001) for each 1-ml/kg/min increase. Peak VO(2) improved both the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination index (both p ≤ 0.0002). Peak VO(2) provided additive prognostic information within each SHFM score (p < 0.05). The 1-year areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were obtained for peak VO(2) (0.645, 95% CI 0.606 to 0.684), SHFM (0.758, 95% CI 0.721 to 0.795) and SHFM with peak VO(2) (0.766, 95% CI 0.731 to 0.802). The SHFM-predicted vs actual survival free of LVAD/UNOS Status 1 transplant at 1 year (86% vs 83%) and 4 years (63% vs 63%) were similar.

Conclusions: The multivariate SHFM is a powerful predictor of death/LVAD/urgent transplant. Peak VO(2) adds prognostic information across the spectrum of the SHFM, but changes in decision regarding transplant listing occur mainly in moderate-risk patients.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Heart Failure / diagnosis*
  • Heart Failure / physiopathology
  • Heart Failure / surgery*
  • Heart Transplantation*
  • Heart-Assist Devices
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Oxygen Consumption / physiology*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Referral and Consultation*
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Survival Rate
  • Washington