Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome following H1N1 influenza vaccination in Quebec

JAMA. 2012 Jul 11;308(2):175-81. doi: 10.1001/jama.2012.7342.


Context: In fall 2009 in Quebec, Canada, an immunization campaign was launched against the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic strain, mostly using an AS03 adjuvant vaccine. By the end of the year, 57% of the 7.8 million residents had been vaccinated.

Objective: To assess the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following pandemic influenza vaccine administration.

Design: Population-based cohort study with follow-up over the 6-month period October 2009 through March 2010. The investigation was ordered by the chief medical officer of health in accordance with the Quebec Public Health Act.

Setting: All acute care hospitals and neurology clinics in Quebec.

Population: Suspected and confirmed GBS cases reported by physicians, mostly neurologists, during active surveillance or identified in the provincial hospital summary discharge database. Medical records were reviewed and cases classified according to Brighton Collaboration definitions (categorized as level 1, 2, or 3, corresponding to criteria of decreasing certainty in diagnosis). Immunization status was verified and denominators were estimated from the provincial immunization registry (4.4 million vaccinated) and census data (total target population aged ≥6 months, 7.8 million), with a total of 3,623,046 person-years of observation.

Main outcome measures: Relative and attributable risks were calculated using a Poisson model and the self-controlled case-series method.

Results: Over a 6-month period, 83 confirmed GBS cases were identified, including 71 Brighton level 1 through 3 cases. Twenty-five confirmed cases had been vaccinated against 2009 influenza A(H1N1) 8 or fewer weeks before disease onset, with most (19/25) vaccinated 4 or fewer weeks before onset. In the Poisson model, the age- and sex-adjusted relative risk was 1.80 (95% CI, 1.12-2.87) for all confirmed cases during the 8-week postvaccination period and was 2.75 (95% CI, 1.63-4.62) during the 4-week postvaccination period. Using the self-controlled case-series method, relative risk estimates during the 4-week postvaccination period were 3.02 (95% CI, 1.64-5.56) for all confirmed cases (n = 42) and 2.33 (95% CI, 1.19-4.57) for Brighton level 1 through 3 cases (n = 36). The number of GBS cases attributable to vaccination was approximately 2 per 1 million doses. There was no indication of an excess risk in persons younger than 50 years.

Conclusions: In Quebec, the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) vaccine was associated with a small but significant risk of GBS. It is likely that the benefits of immunization outweigh the risks.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adjuvants, Immunologic
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Female
  • Guillain-Barre Syndrome / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs
  • Infant
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype*
  • Influenza Vaccines / adverse effects*
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Surveillance*
  • Quebec / epidemiology
  • Risk
  • Time Factors
  • Vaccination / statistics & numerical data
  • Young Adult


  • Adjuvants, Immunologic
  • Influenza Vaccines