Time-series analysis of hepatitis A, B, C and E infections in a large Chinese city: application to prediction analysis

Epidemiol Infect. 2013 May;141(5):905-15. doi: 10.1017/S095026881200146X. Epub 2012 Jul 20.


Viral hepatitis is recognized as one of the most frequently reported diseases, and especially in China, acute and chronic liver disease due to viral hepatitis has been a major public health problem. The present study aimed to analyse and predict surveillance data of infections of hepatitis A, B, C and E in Wuhan, China, by the method of time-series analysis (MemCalc, Suwa-Trast, Japan). On the basis of spectral analysis, fundamental modes explaining the underlying variation of the data for the years 2004-2008 were assigned. The model was calculated using the fundamental modes and the underlying variation of the data reproduced well. An extension of the model to the year 2009 could predict the data quantitatively. Our study suggests that the present method will allow us to model the temporal pattern of epidemics of viral hepatitis much more effectively than using the artificial neural network, which has been used previously.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities
  • Hepatitis A / epidemiology
  • Hepatitis B / epidemiology
  • Hepatitis C / epidemiology
  • Hepatitis E / epidemiology
  • Hepatitis, Viral, Human / classification*
  • Hepatitis, Viral, Human / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Least-Squares Analysis
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Surveillance
  • Time Factors